RE: [OpenFX] COT 4-29-11

Hi,

"Are they really small traders, or giants, hiding as small traders."

This is an interesting thought, one I hadn't considered and being long this far out would take deep pockets. For me, trying to figure out who's doing what based on fundamentals is like trying to nail Jello to the wall, something I'm not schooled in, though "Jello Nailing 101" might be something I take as an elective one day. In the mean time, if you smell smoke, it's because I'm thinking on this one ;-)

Cheers,

Clay

-------- Original Message --------
Subject: Re: [OpenFX] COT 4-29-11
From: <jf337321@bigpond.net.au>
Date: Mon, May 02, 2011 2:50 am
To: <OpenFX@yahoogroups.com>

Hi clay,

Euro and peso are at absolute extremes, and gold and silver are in the middle to continue they upward path.

Cable is heading toward extreme, but still has legs.

USD is in an interesting place heading toward extremely long for coms and small traders as you, Sherlock Holmes pointed out.

I am guessing that small traders are anticipating a rise in the USD once the QE2 finishes end of June. Someome put me right.

My question is, how can these small traders afford to take these long positions, when the positions are simmering, and have yet to come to the boil to go thier way?

These Small traders must have found some really deep pockets.

Are they really small traders, or giants, hiding as small traders.

What is your thinking on this one?

By the way thanks Clay for the COT and Gold chart.

Kangaroofx

----- Original Message -----

From: clay@claymarafiote.com

To: openfx@yahoogroups.com

Sent: Monday, May 02, 2011 4:44 AM

Subject: [OpenFX] COT 4-29-11 [2 Attachments]

Hi Traders,

I'm not sure if I was hearing things, bur I think I actually heard the USD singing the Beatles, "Can't Buy Me Love". Whether I did or didn't really isn't important because the VERY good news is we have a "strong dollar policy" (ahem, cough, cough, choke).

Okay, the COT charts are attached. You'll notice I've included two new entries, oil and the Mexican Peso. Just thought you might be interested (obviously, I am ;-) For the most part, the charts are indicating the same extreme conditions covered previously. However, the US Dollar Index is in a very strange place, as the small traders (not "specs" are int the same position as the commercials. Odd.

The shiny metals, gold and silver, made new highs last week and, in looking at the COT charts, while less than clear, there may still be room left to the north, especially with silver. Gold moved past the nearer term projections I included in a chart I posted that showed a confluence of technical levels around $1505. But, as I said last week, the daily trend line is still in place... which means the trend is still "up". Remember the definition of an uptrend is "higher highs and higher highs (for a downtrend, it's "lower lows and lower highs"). The next technical level I see is Fibonacci 2.618 extension near 1624 (see attached daily chart).

That's it for now. More later...

Great trading!

Clay